Since 1995, many of the seasonal temperature outlooks have ranged between zero and 40 on the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) – a score of 100 means the outlook was perfect. WINTER PREDICTION SCOREBOARD: HOW ON-TARGET ARE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS? But just how on-target are these seasonal outlooks? NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help the nation prepare for likely weather and climate patterns during the next few months to help minimize negative impacts on lives and livelihoods. ![]() (FOX 5 viewer / FOX 5 Atlanta) Seasonal outlooks: Hit or miss? "This is a higher-confidence seasonal prediction than what we saw last year as their confidence topped out at about 60%."įile: Photo from inside a Hobby Lobby in Griffin, Georgia on Januafter a tornado. "That's an indication, and it's pretty telling that the meteorologists over at the Climate Prediction Center think that chances of us having a wetter-than-average winter running higher," said FOX Weather meteorologist Stephen Morgan. Precipitation outlookĪreas with the highest chances for above-average precipitation are overwhelmingly located along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast.Ī wetter-than-average winter is also likely in parts of California and Nevada, the central Rockies, the central and southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and the southern mid-Atlantic, NOAA said. are forecast to have colder-than-average temperatures between December and February, according to NOAA. The Desert Southwest, most of the central and southern Plains and the Southeast have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. Near-average temperatures are forecast from portions of the central and southern Rockies into Oklahoma and North Texas. winter outlook 2023-24 map for temperature.
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